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Bloomberg: The $18 billion Chinese electric vehicle market bubble will burst

via:新浪科技     time:2019/4/15 17:31:53     readed:206

usually,iPhoneThere is no direct competition between assemblers, e-commerce companies and real estate development companies. However, in the field of electric vehicles in China, these seemingly uninterrupted companies are struggling.

Due to the seismic development of electric vehicles, in addition to traditional car companies and car start-ups, including Internet giants, electronics manufacturers and real estate developers have also flooded into this market. Although the government has reduced subsidies, the popularity of market participants has not declined.

At present, a total of 486 electric vehicle manufacturers in China are registered, more than doubled two years ago. The total number of electric vehicles sold in the Chinese market this year is expected to reach 1.6 million. However, this is still difficult to satisfy the appetite of every manufacturer. This may mean that China's electric vehicle market bubble is about to break, leaving only a few survivors.

Thomas Fong (Thomas Fang), a partner at Roland Berger (Roland Berger), a Shanghai-based strategy consultancy, said: "the electric car industry is going to have a big wave. For many electric start-ups, this will be a crucial moment for life and death. "

This week's Shanghai Auto Show will open, at least 10 electric car brands will showcase their new models. These manufacturers include the newly established electric super-running manufacturer, including the future-listed Wei Lai, and of course the traditional car companies like BYD.

In recent years, a large number of electric vehicle manufacturers have appeared worldwide. According to BloombergNEF, the total financing of these companies has reached $18 billion since 2011. Among them, most of the capital has flowed to Chinese car companies, such as Wei Lai, Wei Ma, Xiao Peng and Ranger.

Rapid development

China is leading the global electric car revolution

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Economic Information

Together, these start-ups can produce 3.9 million electric vehicles a year. This figure does not include the electric vehicle production plans of traditional car companies.

The Chinese market is indeed big, but not as big as these companies imagine. Last year, the sales of passenger electric vehicles in the Chinese market exceeded 1 million for the first time. And this increase in sales is largely spurred by government subsidies, which can be reduced by thousands of dollars for consumers to buy each electric car.

At the same time, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data shows that the sales of electric vehicles accounted for only 4% of the total sales of passenger cars in China that year (23.7 million).

Moreover, the sales of traditional Chinese fuel vehicles are experiencing a decline. With the slowdown in economic development and the impact of the Sino-US trade war on the rise of US import tariffs, in March this year, China’s automobile sales have declined for 10 consecutive months. .

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Federation, said: "The popularity of Chinese cars is relatively low, so there is still a relatively large room for development of new energy vehicles. However, this market is prepared for competitive participants. Not the weakest companies, the latter will be out."

Betting electrification

China's electric vehicle start-ups are the world's largest

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Economic Information

In order to alleviate air pollution, reduce fuel dependence on imports, and develop high-tech manufacturing, the Chinese government began to promote the development of electric vehicles.

Chinese government leaders hope to increase the annual sales of new energy vehicles (including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles) to 7 million units by 2025, equivalent to about 20% of China's annual sales of automobiles.

In fact, this sales volume can only satisfy the appetite of dozens of car companies. The current situation of hundreds of companies coexisting cannot be maintained. In general, for a car company, to achieve profitability, they need to sell at least tens of thousands of car products every year.

For these companies, last month they ushered in a head start: the government announced that it will reduce the subsidies for car companies. The government wants to encourage car companies to maintain their business through innovation, instead of relying on government support. Previously, the government subsidies that the vehicle could enjoy could be as high as $7,500, and today the number has been shackled.

Zhou Lei, a partner at Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting, a Japanese consulting firm, said: "With the adjustment of subsidies, some technologically less advanced electric vehicle start-ups will disappear. The industry will usher in a reshuffle."

In this context, a large wave of Western companies have come to China to "spoil", from Tesla to Volkswagen to Ford, these companies are eyeing China's electric car market, they all want to produce electric cars in China. .

Elon Musk's Tesla started selling his first mass-market electric car in China this year: Model 3. The US electric vehicle maker has also set up a factory in Shanghai and will build electric vehicles in China by the end of this year. Tesla sold 14467 electric vehicles in the Chinese market last year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Traditional car companies such as Toyota, Fiat-Chrysler, Honda and Mitsubishi have chosen another faster way to get their electric cars into China: they will sell the same car with different logos, and the car is made. The business is the common partner of the above four companies in China: Guangzhou Automobile.

Some well-known Chinese local companies, such as BYD, are more likely to survive the competition and subsidies. In the past few years, BYD has achieved good results. In addition to passenger cars, they also have bus and bus businesses, and they have a large consumer base.

BYD, which has invested in Warren Buffett's (Warren Buffett), has seen revenue grow over the past six years, and BYD has been profitable in at least 2000, according to data available to Bloomberg.

Wang Chuanfu, founder and chairman of BYD, said: "In the competition, only those companies with solid technical reserves can stand up. By mastering the core technology, we can see farther and deeper."

Roland Berger's partners believe that the current risks are those that are still looking for direction. Among the emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in China, many founders are from the Internet or technology background, they are maintained by burning money, and some people are not sure that the automobile manufacturing industry needs a large amount of investment.

In addition to the traditional car companies and new car power, some companies that have never been involved in the automobile manufacturing industry are also targeting this market, such as Foxconn, Alibaba and Evergrande. As a well-known real estate developer, Evergrande even said that it would become the world's largest electric car manufacturer in the next 3-5 years.

Fang said: "The investment required to build a car will be several times that they invested in marketing and product opening. For this reason, some companies' production plans have been delayed."

Both the headquarters and the production team are located in the future of the French car in California, and have not started the production of their first car until now. Benteng, led by former BMW executives, said last month that they are currently seeking a $700 million round of financing, and earlier this year they just had a round of $500 million in financing. Baiteng said that they need to complete the latest round of financing before they can start mass production later this year.

Li Xiang, founder and CEO of Chehe, said that for these start-ups, they must get more financing before the end of next year, otherwise they will besweep the floorThe danger of going out. And since then, emerging car manufacturers will find it hard to continue to gain the favor of investors, because even the most advanced start-ups are not yet profitable.

Li Xiang is the first Tesla owner in China. He previously set up a car home. The car portal is listed in the US and the current market value exceeds 12 billion US dollars. After leaving the president of the car home, Li Xiang set up a car and home.

Cars and homes have hired many talents from companies such as Daimler, Toyota and BMW. They planned to implement vehicle delivery in 2017, and then they adjusted this target. Now their goal is to start in the fourth quarter of this year. Delivered.

Li Xiang said: "A large number of enterprises will disappear this year, and 90% of investors will suffer serious losses."

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