Wen/Liu Yajie and Cui Dengfan
Source: A little bit of finance (ID: yidiancaijing)
Head manufacturers like treading thin ice, the second echelon collectively fell. The golden age of mobile phones in China is gone forever.
Over the past year, the global mobile phone consumer market is becoming increasingly sluggish, manufacturers are trying to stimulate the impulse to buy, but user demand is only trickle down and shrinking.
01A kind ofSuddenly warm
On March 17, 2018, Beijing ushered in the first snow of the whole winter. The snow came unexpectedly and reasonably.
At that time, the Arbor Festival has passed, and the spring wind relaxes people's vigilance against the cold. Unexpectedly, the unusual weather eventually calls for snowflakes scattered. After a year's cold backlog, the late spring snow comes. At that time, the stunning had passed. The late snow could not match the warm wind. The cold of the night could not keep the determined spring snow.
This evening snow, is not next in the mobile phone market in 2018?
Earlier this year, data showed that global smartphone shipments had declined for the first time in history, with 1.462 billion shipments and 7.31 million loosening. However, just like that late spring snow can not make people feel awesome, only 0.5% of the decline is just a turning point, not a ravine, it is a signal that has emerged, but not enough to shock the whole market.
After listening to Shen Wei's summary, the employees returned to their workplaces in spring and continued to charge. Their self-confidence is reasonable: on February 1st, the first fingerprint recognition cell phone X20 Plus in vivo will be launched worldwide. Such an arrangement allows vivo to innovate at a faster pace than Huawei, OPPO, and competitors like Apple and Samsung.
To this end, vivo also launched a market survey, up to 66.87% of users believe that vivo X20 Plus screen fingerprint technology is the representative of innovation, the limit of screen proportion has a new dimension of thinking. The new mode of human-computer interaction, hardware changes, so easily touched 66.87% of users, this is enough exciting to think about.
Huawei is also throbbing. From just over 100 million units shipped in 2015 to 139 million units in 2016, and more than 153 million units in 2017, Huawei has no trend of deceleration. How can such sweetness stop? After the festival, Huawei immediately released the latest products Huawei P20 and P20 Pro in Paris, France.
02A kind ofSilver colder
In March, when the warm wind failed, a manufacturer suddenly sounded an alarm and Jin Li had a problem.
Under the puzzlement of a series of negative information, such as supplier Oufeiguang's application for property preservation, the freezing of chairman's equity by the court and the suspension of employee's salary, Jinli has been unable to meet its debts. A large amount of money can not be transferred to the central system, which makes Jinli Industrial Park increasingly cold. In the 258 Mu factory area near the lake of Dalingshan Town in Dongguan City, the hope of surviving is as bright as beans.
Faced with the sudden loss of customers, channel providers, even at the risk of collusion and privately reducing prices by fines from suppliers, should clean up inventory as soon as possible, promptly triggering panic in the delivery process. During this period, 50% of channel merchants were eliminated, and the elimination rate in some areas was as high as 80%.
As early as 2011, millet with the concept of Internet mobile phone, opened the curtain of online marketing, traditional mobile phone manufacturers competed to imitate quite fruitful; five years later, online marketing failed, OPPO and vivo let the value of physical channel rejuvenate; two years later, the energy efficiency of physical channel is also deteriorating, where is the next shore? Every front seems to be the right answer, but it does not seem to be.
The coordinates are blurred, followed by fear-induced rumors and various adjustments to avoid panic. In mid-late April, the media suddenly revealed that 360 plans to take off the tepid mobile phone business, and Luo Yonghao became the catcher. The resignation of Yao Juan, deputy general manager and financial director of 360 mobile phone department, and Liao Qinghong, deputy general manager, paved the way for the transfer.
Only rumors overestimated Luo Yonghao's savings and underestimated Zhou Hongyi's worship of mobile phones. Hammer is still relying on the capital market to support its life. It has been too shy for a long time. Li Kaixin, president of 360 mobile phone, is busy developing new N series products. He has no time to consider buoyancy, which soon makes rumors lose their foothold.
Faced with the sudden decline of the market, manufacturers do not want to give up the opportunity of the mobile market, but can not find an ideal solution, so they have to flicker their words, or even keep silent.
03A kind ofAnger in Shuangcheng
While people are eager to find a way out, the telecommunications industry has experienced two tremendous shocks around ZTE and Lenovo.
On April 16, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that ZTE had received a refusal order for violation of U.S. regulations. Within seven years before March 13, 2025, ZTE would not be able to purchase spare parts, goods, software and technology from U.S. companies. For the mobile sector, this means ZTE will not be able to use Qualcomm processors, Broadcom's baseband chips, and Google's Android products and solutions.
According to media surveys, ZTE's official website and Tianmao's flagship store website immediately dropped all kinds of terminal products, and Shenzhen's headquarters directly operated stores also kept pace, leaving only Jingdong to find sales pages. Mature market division of labor, perfect industrial chain coordination, years of industry accumulation, or in an instant by the technology blockade.
Hou Weigui, the 76-year-old founder of ZTE, has stepped forward to defend his rights as batches of mobile phones continue to come off the shelves and sales of other products and solutions continue to stall.
On the one hand, the suppression of external forces, on the other hand, the public opinion, ZTE and Lenovo are in a dilemma.
Liu Chuanzhi is a quick-tempered entrepreneur, he also found a way out in ZTE first.
By contrast, the more difficult thing is ZTE. After nearly two months of debate, the two sides finally found a solution: the U.S. Department of Commerce removed ZTE from the ban list, but ZTE had to pay a $1 billion fine for that. Faced with the technical blockade that could not be overcome, ZTE signed an alliance under the city.
In the downward cycle of the global economy, consumer expectations have reached the bottom, and the mobile phone industry chain is under unprecedented pressure. The tough market environment forces different roles to open up the existing open source channels. The way to make profits is also changing from relying solely on incremental reduction of marginal costs to relying on supervision, patents, technology blockade and other forms.
Later, Ni Guangnan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, commented on the matter. Regarding ZTE's situation, he thinks that it will take more than ten years for enterprises to make profits with the support of the state. As for Lenovo's dilemma, he only said that it originated from the objective reality of independent development of private enterprises and the serious dislocation of the urgent need for capital caused by technological evolution, but did not give a solution to the problem.
04A kind ofReflect
After the upsurge of ZTE and Lenovo, the mood that dominated the mobile phone industry remained astonished.
When the market has broken the incremental bubble, patents have become the precondition for the whole industry to continue to develop. Manufacturers can only rely on invisible patent shields to protect their products. Production workshops and supply chains are still strong, and without patents, they can only be in the wind and rain.
In the face of reality, manufacturers have not lost their due calmness. Incremental disappearance is an objective fact, they can not reverse must face; can not fill the technical shortcomings, they can only wait for the harvest of crops, hands will never have the right to choose, so the market's head enterprises are starting to continue to work in the technical sector.
Data show that as of the second quarter of 2018, Samsung, Huawei, Apple, millet and OPPO have become the top five global shipments. OPPO ranked fifth with 29.4 million units, after which only 11.37 million units were shipped.
Focusing on the challenge of 3D games to the ability of rendering and presenting mobile pictures, Huawei released GPU TURBO technology, which increased the efficiency of graphics processing by 60% and reduced power consumption by 30%. Through the development of Kirin processor, Huawei has touched on the underlying technology in the CPU link, and it is only a matter of time to get through CPU and GPU. Shortly after the new technology was released, Huawei announced that its shipments had exceeded 100 million yuan.
OPPO does not have Huawei's technological capabilities, but also realizes that the tie between destiny and the ratings of variety shows, the fans'complex of Super IP dramas, or the star background wall of sports competitions can no longer withstand the imminent risk. Its own gene is communication, not marketing. So during the World Cup in Russia, OPPO released Find X, emphasizing the new product integration of patented technologies such as flash charging, rotating camera, laser focusing technology, multi-axis shake-proof micro-motor, and 3D structured light developed jointly with Obi Zhongguang.
But compared with Huawei and vivo, OPPO started too late in 5G and technological innovation. The flagship airliner released in the past year lagged behind. The next year is 2019, which can't be lost. Otherwise, it's not alarming to drop the first echelon.
The patent reserve of the head enterprise is more and more abundant, and soon forms a fault with other enterprises. Together, 11.37 million tail manufacturers with shipments are still too weak in technology and patent reserve, and they have not even established the consciousness of perfecting the patent fence.
Meizu 15's Waterloo voice is over, and the company's leadership has gone through a pedestrian rotation, expecting to attract users through personnel changes; in the face of the declining market, 360 regained its cost-effective strategy, expecting to attract users by reducing profits; perhaps breaking the law of the development of the mobile phone market, the hammer of dismal operation decided to start a new stove, In the new product launch in autumn, humidifiers, smart speakers and suitcases were released, which means there is no smartphone. We are looking forward to winning customers with a new product concept. They are struggling, but the harder they work, the farther they are away from the industry.
05A kind ofNo Way Back
The winter of 2018 was earlier than in previous years, and many enterprises failed to withstand the cold outside.
At the end of November, Atlas, which failed to boost sales by any means, eventually opted to give up, and packaged the brand, image technology and secondary domain name of its mobile phone to millet.
Liu Lirong also acknowledged the fact of gambling. When the court sent the bankruptcy confirmation, the company's total liabilities had reached 20.253 billion yuan and 648 creditors.
And Luo Yonghao's hammer has been living in the rumors of bankruptcy.
Manufacturers who failed to withstand the cold market withdrew, but the remaining manufacturers were also secretly anxious, mainly from Qualcomm.
Not long ago, Qualcomm released its fiscal fourth quarter results for fiscal year 2018. The company's revenue was $5.8 billion, down 2% from $5.9 billion in the same period last year; its net loss was $500 million, and its net profit for the same period last year was $200 million. Both the equipment and services sector and the patent licensing sector declined to varying degrees.
So Fuzhou Intermediate People's Court launched a ban on the sale of Apple's seven iPhones, and then the Munich District Court of Germany ruled that Apple violated Qualcomm's smartphone energy-saving technology infringement and issued a ban. One after another, there is infinite want.
Manufacturers and industry experts have planted a sense of distress in the era of incremental growth, foreseeing the decline of the industry as early as possible, and seeing through the obstacles of patented technology, sooner or later, holding enterprises back. That's a fixed number. You can't escape it.
Looking back on 2018, it started well and ended sadly. In a year, let a colorful world, become today's loneliness, industry increasingly lack of surprises, but this may be a fixed number. Those familiar faces stick to their own fixed number and eventually survive, which is the fixed number of the whole industry.