On the 11th of the previous day, it was also the day when American federal employees were paid. Although this is the first time employees have received payrolls since the federal government’s suspension, many employees have taken a closer look and have no money on the details. By convention, the salaries of these employees will be replenished after the federal government resumes operations.
However, the employees who are underpaid are still good.
The federal government’s suspension began on December 22 last year. Because the Democratic Party refused to release the $5.7 billion (about 38.5 billion yuan) needed for Trump’s “wall-building plan”, Trump also refused to revoke the wall-building appropriation, which made it impossible for the relevant part of the 2019 appropriation of Congress. Through the federal departments and agencies that need to use this grant, they have to stop.
On the 12th, in New York's wharf to the Statue of Liberty, the notice on the side of the worker said, "Because the federal government partially stopped, the New York State Government subsidized it to continue to open." Xinhua News Agency
Currently, nine of the 15 cabinet-level departments of the US federal government and dozens of affiliates have been shut down, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Transportation, the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Department, and the Department of Justice. The number of employees involved is around 800,000, of which 420,000 employees in federal law enforcement and core government agencies are forced to work unpaid, and 380,000 employees in non-core government agencies are on unpaid leave.
The Trump administration’s lockout record is destined to continue, given that it is currently on weekends and Congress holidays.
Corporate IPO is cold
For start-ups looking to make an initial public offering (IPO) in the US, the 2019 IPO plan may not be as smooth as expected. Such as short-term rental Airbnb, travel Uber, Lyft, picture social sharingwebsitePinterest, office communication applications, Slack and other companies have indicated that they will be listed in 2019, some of which are intended to be IPOs in the first quarter of this year, but given the signs of the US federal government's suspension, the waiting time for these IPOs has been greatly extended. .
If Airbnb, Uber, and other internationally well-known start-ups can get hundreds of millions of dollars in blood supply from large venture capital funds such as Softbank, small and medium-sized start-ups are eager to raise their lives through IPOs. money". These SMEs can't afford it.
Gilbert, a partner at Propel Ventures, believes that some of the federal government's lockouts have begun to affect Silicon Valley. “The IPO schedule in the first quarter of this year has been ruined, and the delay in IPO is bound to produce a 'chain effect.'” Gilbert said, “If those SMEs fail to get IP on time, it is likely to completely change the company’s development track.”
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued by the IPO is also one of the US federal government agencies that have been “discontinued”.
At present, the SEC is telling investors on the official website of the official website: Since December 27 last year, the SEC has only a small number of employees “left behind” to deal with emergencies involving market integrity and investor protection and law enforcement. Some analysts believe that once the US federal government resumes operation, the SEC will face a cloud of IPOs.
Uber and Lyft, two of the most car companies that may have won the IPO this year, have yet to receive feedback from the SEC on their confidential filings for IPOs. And this is just the first step in completing an IPO registration. Both companies are hoping for an IPO in the first half of this year, and their spokesperson declined to comment on the status quo of the IPO plan being postponed.
Official website announcement during the SEC lockout
This is obviously not the first time the SEC has experienced a lock-out crisis, but unlike in the past, in 1995, 1996 and 2013, the agency was able to use retained funds while other government departments were shutting down, and this year the organization has no Sufficient funds to keep all of its functions running.
According to data from the financial technology company Dealogic, January is the month of setting the market tone. In the past 10 years, only in 2009 and 2016, due to market instability, the IPO volume in January was extremely low, and this year is likely to become "the coldest January in the history of IPO."
People's lives are affected
In addition to corporate IPOs, industries involved in the ordinary people's livelihood in the United States have not been able to shake off the impact of the federal government's lockout.
Given that the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and other US agencies that certify the safety of consumer electronics are suspended due to the federal government's lockout, technology products that will be listed in the next few months will be reduced, even affecting the Trump administration. Deployment of 5G networks.
The United States Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) issued a statement on the 11th local time, saying that the federal government's suspension caused the FCS-certified equipment to slow down, and may eventually affect the deployment of 5G networks.
The airport in the United States is also deeply affected by the main modes of transportation for people to travel. On the 11th, Miami International Airport, one of the major international airports in the United States, has announced that due to the lack of manpower of the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) responsible for security inspection, it is planned to close the opening of one of the terminals within 3 days from 12 to 14. Early to 1 pm. Therefore, some passengers' security checkpoints and boarding gates will change, and long queues may be difficult to avoid.
Although it did not disclose the number of employees who had already made a difference, TSA said that many employees had resigned or were considering resigning in view of the fact that employees were in unpaid work due to the federal government's suspension. On the one hand, the heads of the trade unions of the bureau are worried about the emergence of the tide of departure, and on the other hand, they are worried about the impact of sharply reducing the impact on airport security.
In addition, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the “food safety chief”, could not hold back, saying that all routine inspections of US food production and processing facilities have been suspended. Of the FDA's funding, 40% comes from Congressional grants.
In the United States, 80% of the food supply is regulated by the FDA, which conducts about 160 routine tests per week. At present, these checks are suspended due to insufficient funds. However, the FDA director said that they are doing their best to reduce the risk, and revealed that plans are being made to recall some of the employees and resume inspections of some "high-risk" facilities.
Also, due to financial problems, the number of personnel has dropped sharply, as well as the Ministry of Agriculture and other departments, as well as the National Park Administration under the Ministry of the Interior and the Coast Guard under the Ministry of Homeland Security. At present, some national parks in the United States have been dumped. According to the National Park Service, the government’s shutdown has resulted in no “providing guidance, assistance, maintenance or emergency response” services. On the Internet, the most frequently asked questions are: Is Yosemite (Park) still open? Can Yellowstone Park play?
The US federal government has not stopped once or twice, and certain types of administrative operations have already had certain "immunity." For example, in the field of immigration, the approval of EB-5 immigrants did not stop because of the federal government’s lockout. Yu Jia Capital CEO Peng Jiarong told the First Financial Reporter that the EB-5 applicants affected by the federal government's suspension were regional and regional centers. The direct investment EB-5 application and approval were carried out normally. The so-called direct investment refers to the direct investment of investors into new commercial entities that can create real employment opportunities. It is a permanent immigration bill formally passed in 1990. The regional center's mode of operation is to raise funds from investors and invest them in larger business expectations. The difference is that the Regional Center Act is a temporary bill that requires a congressional interim budget to continue.
Calculate the economic account
At present, the federal government is returning to work, and the government affairs and services that have been put on hold will inflict damage on the economy. What should I do with this economic account?
The international rating agency S&P took the lead in giving the answer. Standard & Poor's believes that if the federal government stops for another two weeks, the US economy will lose $6 billion.
On the 10th, in the capital Washington, DC, federal employees have taken to the streets, calling on the government to end the lockout as soon as possible.
There is no salary to be credited, and of course there is no incentive to spend. At present, US retail giants such as Best Buy and Wal-Mart have also deeply felt the chill of the federal government's suspension of consumer spending. Wells Fargo retail analysts conservatively expect the retail industry to lose $2 billion a week, given that nearly 800,000 federal employees are unable to get paid in time and receive appropriate tax rebates.
Investment bank Jefferies is also closely watching the impact of the federal government's lockout on consumer spending. They surveyed Washington, DC, Maryland, and Virginia, where federal employees were concentrated, and found that local restaurant chain Chuy's and luxury department stores Nordstrom and The Container Store were all left out.
The number of days the US federal government has stopped since 1976.
In 2013, the US federal government shut down for 16 days, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point decline in GDP in the fourth quarter of that year. As a result, Morgan Stanley has cut its GDP growth in the first quarter of this year by 0.25 percentage points to 2%. Bank of America Merrill Lynch plans to cut the US GDP growth rate by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.
So far, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party where Trump is still unable to find a consensus on when to end the federal government shutdown. Trump once said that if the Democratic Party does not want to compromise on the construction of the US-Mexico border wall, it will not hesitate to let the federal government stop for months or even years. The "most long time" federal government lockout will hit the US economy, which is still doing well.