Qualcomm recently acquired some old modelsIPhoneQualcomm accused the products of infringing patents under its sales ban, but expects these models to account for only 25% of manufacturing in the current quarter. Apple has also released a software update to address this issue, although Qualcomm has tried to extend the ban to the iPhone XS and XR series. Apple is believed to have adjusted its product shipment mix in the December quarter to benefit the iPhone XR and the XS Max. Based on this assumption, Cowen has increased the total estimate of these phones by 1.5 million to 73.5 million. For the first quarter of this year, Cowen estimated that the total number of iPhones shipped was 44 million.
As Apple focuses on launching new products in the fall and the end-of-year holiday window, it usually slows down the production of the iPhone by January. If Cowen's prediction is correct, the extra cuts in November and December seem more seasonal than anything else. In recent months, other Apple research institutes have been lowering stock price expectations, such as Jefferies recently lowered its stock price target from $265 to $225. Other companies that cut valuations include Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and UBS.
Cowen's forecast for the whole of 2019 shows that Apple will ship fewer than 200 million units, down 7% to 10% from a year earlier. In addition, the price of the iPhone is quite expensive, which may affect demand, but given Apple's target market, the impact may not be too great.