“Mobile phones enter the stock market, investment opportunities are improving, but more competitors will enter, and price pressure will increase,” Xu Baiyi, manager of China’s new economy A-share fund, said in an interview. “If there are no new innovative applications, The mobile phone supply chain is still facing a valuation downgrade for a long time. It will not consider investing in mobile phone stocks for the time being.” Since the release of most of the mobile phone supply chain stocks at the end of last year, he has cleared the Sunny Optical Technology in the middle of the year.
Bloomberg's comprehensive analysts predict that China's 12 mobile phone stocks including Hon Hai will reduce average net profit by 4.1% this year, up 44% last year; average revenue growth rate also fell to 10.4%, lower than 29% last year. In addition to a slight improvement in the net profit of several Taiwanese stocks this year, the average earnings of Hong Kong mobile phone stocks are expected to decline sharply, and the growth of A-share companies' performance has slowed down noticeably.
Morgan Stanley’s report on the 15th said that concerns about the recentiPhoneThe downward adjustment of orders in the supply chain is only the first wave of market shock. If the iPhone does not have attractive new features next year, Apple's weak orders may become the new normal; the report said that the third quarter of China's smartphone shipments fell by double-digit percentage year-on-year. Continue to weaken to the fourth quarter. According to the report of CICC on the 21st, due to the fluctuation of exchange rate in emerging markets and the high price strategy of Apple's new machine, the profit growth rate of the whole industry in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year is facing challenges. The report also lowered the profit of Xiaomi Group from 2018 to 2020. And mobile phone shipment forecast.
Demand for mobile phones has shrunk, and giants like Apple may be able to maintain profit growth by increasing sales and transitioning to software services, while suppliers have no retreat. If Apple cuts component orders or delays shipments, it will cause suppliers to backlog more inventory. Bloomberg industry research analyst Woo Jin Ho believes that suppliers are more dependent on iPhone sales than Apple.
Although Apple's share price has been adjusted back from its record high in October, it has risen 4.5% since this year. In contrast, 12 mobile phone stocks of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan all fell, with an average decline of more than 30%. The worst performance was AAC. Year-to-date has fallen by about 60%.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) analyst Pu Deyu said that recently, including AAC Technologies, Kecheng Technology and other suppliers have announced that the outlook is revised or not expected, the market has lowered their estimates. The investors are most worried about the overall technology industry. Slowdown, especially the iPhone XR demand is weak. He believes that in the low demand visibility and the continued destocking of spare parts, the production of the supply chain may remain light until the Lunar calendar.
Expect after the Spring Festival
Xu Tingquan, manager of Allianz China Strategic Fund, also said that this year's stock market is not good, the P2P platform collapses and other factors, China's consumption power is affected, so whether it is the iPhone or Chinese local brands, short-term sales are difficult to watch. After confirming the new specifications of the next generation of mobile phones after the Spring Festival next year, there may be opportunities to cut into the mobile phone stocks such as the Apple supply chain.
Looking forward to next year, innovations such as three-lens and foldable mobile phones are still the highlights that observers are looking forward to. Guangfa's Pu Deyu said that the three lenses will be the mainstream of high-end mobile phones such as Apple next year. It is expected that Sunny Optical and Da Liguang will benefit. Oriental Securities (Hong Kong) analyst Sheng Yiran also pointed out that the glass back shell will also be a bright spot, because it can enhance the signal receiving ability.
However, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Charlie Chan, these new features can not reverse the industry in 2019. Chan et al. said in a report on the 15th that the adoption rate of the three lenses is limited; in addition, 5G technology is not popular next year - the market is expected to debut in 2020 - this will hurt the demand for replacement next year.