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Zuckerberg was still young, but Facebook began to worry about getting old.

via:博客园     time:2018/11/12 12:28:23     readed:427


Text / left bank

Source: know how to take notes (dongdong_note)

Zuckerberg, 34, is still young, but his Facebook is starting to worry.

Facebook pai


Everyone is afraid of being seen


What is TikTok? Why the Facebook, which dominates the social networking world, produces it

In the mobile Internet, young people represent energy and the future, and the TikTok (Douyin overseas Edition) has grown rapidly over the past year, thanks to its popularity with young people overseas. More than 90% of TikTok users are in their 20s, according to data. By contrast, Facebook at this stage is about to appea

The quick launch of Lasso is the killer of sniper TikTok. In terms of product type, Lasso is almost the same as TikTok. Lasso allows users to shoot short videos up to 15 seconds (no upload allowed), add background music, and the application also uses algorithms to form recommended video streams.

According to statistics, in the first half of this year, today's TikTok, the headline, ranked first in Apple's App Store worldwide download volume, with more than 104 million downloads. In April, it also became the highest monthly download in the U.S. market, successfully surpassing traditional application giants such as Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and YouTube. According to Zhang Nan, president of tremolo, TikTok now covers 150 countries and 75 languages, ranking first in the list of application stores in more than 40 countries and regions. In the third quarter of 2018, downloads were more than five times that of the same period last year.

As a product of content and social integration, TikTo is making rapid progress while snatching cakes from social giants such as Facebook and Instagram. Especially, the main users it snatches are the young people who symbolize the future in the eyes of these giants.

Facebook, one of the top players in social networking, is intolerable. In July, Facebook announced that 2.5 billion users worldwide were using at least one of its applications (as of June 2018), including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp or Messenger. But Zuckerberg also admitted that this figure represents the total number of users, not the number of active users.

What is Facebook most worried about with traffic and huge revenue?

According to Facebook's third-quarter earnings, revenue in the third quarter was $13.727 billion, up 33% from a year earlier, and net profit was $5.137 billion, up 9% from a year earlier. Although both revenues and net profits have increased, this figure has not satisfied Wall Street. 41 analysts in Wall Street predicted that Facebook's revenue in the three quarter would be $13 billion 780 million. Despite the small gap, Facebook failed to meet Wall Street's expectations, which is why its revenue fell short of expectations for two consecutive quarters. At the same time, revenue growth is the slowest quarterly growth in two years.

Wall Street analysts found that the biggest discrepancy between the results and their expectations was in terms of the activity of young users. Only 5 percent of U.S. teenagers now think Facebook is their favorite social platform, according to a survey released by investment bank Piper Jaffray. Since the spring of 2016, the number of teenagers using Facebook per month has dropped from 60 percent to 36 percent. And in the analyst's view, who's got this?


For Xiao Zha, the only gratifying thing is that Instagram, a fist product, can still support a sky.

In terms of user usage, Instagram has surpassed Snapchat by the second quarter of this year. Moreover, Instagram can earn more advertising revenue for Facebook. Data show that brand or product advertisements on Instagram and other channels are more acceptable to young people in Europe and the United States, accounting for nearly 70%, far higher than 40% of Snapchat.


But another data in front of Xiaozha shows that Instagram has not performed well in the rapidly developing short video market, especially in the music short video segment market, which is more attractive to young people. At present, the short video form of Instagram is mainly about Snapchat related functions.

From the relevant data, Instagram seems to have more room for long vertical screen video than the sudden rise of short video applications such as TikTok.

In August of this year, Instagram launched a new video content platform: IGTV. But judging from the current situation, IGTV has not succeeded in leading the new wave.

From the data point of view, thanks to the strong influence of Instagram, IGTV released in August scored 2.5 million downloads per week in a short time, and quickly topped the iOS App Store in the United States. But the fever is not lasting. In just two months, IGTV downloads dropped to 70,000 times a week, a 94% drop from the first week's results. The ranking on the list of App Store has also dropped to 1497.


become different

Ignoring young people who love short video content is not the biggest problem.

Faced with market challenges, Facebook also has the same internal problems. For Zuckerberg and Facebook, 2018 is definitely the most memorable year. Bad news, such as fake news, privacy leakage, growth slowdown, and executive turnover, are always hanging over the top.


Xiao Za was forced to attend two Senate hearings in April because of the data leak, and has since undergone a rigorous investigation by the European Union, its main regulator. The haze did not disappear. On November 3, another hacker said he had stolen and released private information from at least 81,000 Facebook accounts. The hackers also said they had gotten details of 120 million Facebook accounts and tried to sell them for 10 cents per account.

Because of the negative news, the bad news has also lost some young users in Europe and the United States.

Facebook's soaring share price has also been mired in a continuing slump under the influence of a series of negative news. Facebook shares closed at $148.86 on November 6, down $1.49 from $150.35 on the previous trading day. Such a slide has been going on for quite some time. Data show that since July 1 this year, its share price has fallen by 22.6%, and the overall decline of this year's share price is also close to 15%.

Because of its poor market performance, coupled with its internal and diplomatic difficulties, Gene Munster, an analyst at venture capital firm Loup Ventures, suggested,

The emergence of TikTok may not be a fatal blow, but similar applications, the trend behind the relevant data, make Xiaozha can not tolerate any slips.


Under the disadvantage of self-study, purchasing potential application products that young people may like is another way to break through. But Musical. ly, the most suitable acquisition target, was captured by today's headlines in November at a price of $1 billion. In desperation, Facebook can only start the stove again.

In an interview with foreign media, a person familiar with the matter revealed:




Like the domestic short video market, there are numerous short video applications in overseas markets. Why is TikTok successful?

In addition to its innovative music short video format, the platform's content distribution capabilities and technological leadership also play a crucial role. In terms of product form, there is no difference between TikTok and tremolo. The only difference may be that TikTok will integrate local music and dance culture into the relevant landing market, but this is not the focus.

You know, short video content presentation forms are easy to break through the cultural and linguistic barriers. This goes from Douyin to bringing fire abroad.

But the real barrier of TikTok lies in the content push algorithm behind it. TikTok can help users find their favorite content quickly through mature algorithms and the understanding of the interest tags of target users. It can also provide better distribution effect for the creator's works, so as to enhance user stickiness.

Unlike TikTok, Facebook now focuses on the tradition of traffic as king. This is also the biggest advantage Facebook has as a social networking giant, which has defeated Snapchat with its huge traffic. In terms of content precise push algorithms, although Facebook claims to have the best algorithms to predict users'preferences, the actual performance does not seem to be the same.

In April last year, Fast Company, a foreign media, wrote that Facebook is still pushing its own content, despite the fact that users say they have food photo phobia. In addition, fake news has always been a big problem for Facebook, so it has to constantly adjust its information flow algorithm to limit spam. But judging from the current external evaluation, the effect is not obvious.

In the strategy of dealing with TikTok, it is believed that Facebook will not make any more mistakes in the past, and will take advantage of its own advantages to form a certain product expansion capability. Earlier this year, in an effort to revive its music business, Facebook struck guaranteed licensing agreements with some of its leading labels. This also for its next music short video application has played a good foreshadowing. Although at present

Judging from the current market situation, although public opinion and wind rating are not friendly to Facebook, there is no doubt that it is still the most influential social network platform in the world, and its hard power is far ahead of TikTok.. So, the same form, the similar content, the two patterns in front of countless groups of young overseas users.

The answer is in the hands of young people whether Xiaozha, who has never been defeated, can reproduce Snapchat's brilliant achievements and defend the honor of the King of Social Networks.

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