Morgan Stanley's latest report says Apple's autumn launch next week may be relatively mild, and the impact of the new iPhone model is still positive throughout the year. While the smartphone replacement cycle has been extended, users of older iPhones can't be ignored to upgrade to new ones. The great potential of the machine.
The new report reiterates current rumors and speculation at its September 13 announcement that three new iPhones this year will include 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch OLED models and a relatively inexpensive 6.1-inch LCD model. Morgan Stanley also expects Apple Watch Series 4 to show up at the conference, along with a new 11-inch, frameless iPad Pro with a Face ID, and the Mac product line to release the new machine in some form.
It's worth mentioning that Morgan Stanley analysts aren't sure whether Apple will officially launch the wireless charger AirPower at the launch, but the report says this timing makes sense because the device was first unveiled in September last year. Analysts believe that this year's new iPhone shipments are clearly moderate expectations, due to the recent extension of the smartphone replacement cycle. In the past 24 months, the replacement cycle of smart phones has been extended from two years to three years.
As evidence of this, Morgan Stanley analysts point out that global smartphone shipments have been falling in the past three quarters after more than a decade of growth. Morgan Stanley predicts that growth in iPhone shipments will be reduced to 0.6% in the full year of 2019, down from 0.9% year-on-year growth in 2018, at about 220 million units.
However, this report also lists several factors that have a positive impact on iPhone shipments in 2019. First, with more and more consumers using smartphones as their primary device, rather than tablets or laptops, the extension of the smartphone replacement cycle may slow, Morgan Stanley argues that consumers will increase their use of smartphones and need them to remain "near peak" This may prevent the replacement cycle from prolonging to four years and boost iPhone shipments.
Another reason is that Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that 46% of iPhone users currently use the 6S or older model of the iPhone, which is about 300 million units, and is likely to upgrade in terms of a three-year replacement cycle.
Finally, Apple's new technology on the new iPhone is also an important incentive for users to upgrade their phones over the next year, including borderless displays, Face ID and wireless charging.
Morgan Stanley also pointed out in the report that investors may worry that the average price of the iPhone will fall in 2019, partly because Apple will also launch a 6.1-inch LCD iPhone at a lower price. Earlier this year, some analysts predicted that the average price of the iPhone would drop by 2% from a year earlier, provided that the two OLED iPhones cost $899 and $999 respectively, while the LCD iPhone costs as low as $669.
According to Apple earlier this year, the iPhone X is the best-selling model of the year, although the device starts at $999. Analysts say the final price for a 6.1-inch LCD model could be between $699 and $799, which is the best case, compared with a 6.5-inch OLED model that could cost more than $999.