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From BAT to AT: Baidu out of BAT Jingdong only 1%

via:博客园     time:2017/6/26 9:00:35     readed:1430

China BAT Big Three

Liu Jia Zhao Chen Ting

The first half of the Internet, China out of BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) Big Three; in artificial intelligence (AI) dominated the second half, there are views that the pattern will evolve into BATH (H refers to Huawei). Now the suspense is, B will not fall behind?

Eastern time on June 23 closing, Jingdong (JD.NASDAQ) shares rose 3.92 percent, to $ 42.95, compared to a year ago rose 100 percent, the market value of 60.9 billion US dollars; compared to Jingdong's triumph, is in performance Bottom of the Boulder (BIDU.NASDAQ), which is undergoing reorganization and transformation, is now worth about $ 61.5 billion. The market gap between the two left only 600 million US dollars, converted into a gain of only 1%.

Alibaba chairman Ma Yun in April last year had predicted that two or three years, BAT pattern will change, "Internet business pressure is very large, every day are thin ice. & Rdquo;

Now it seems that China's Internet pattern has been far away from the sky, the Big Three is the most likely to be the first subversion of Baidu is. From the market point of view, Alibaba and Tencent's market capitalization has exceeded 300 billion US dollars, Baidu is a long time in the vicinity of 60 billion US dollars hovering; from the latest quarter of revenue, Alibaba and Tencent's revenue scale are more than 30 billion Yuan, Baidu is only 16.9 billion yuan.

At the same time, in Baidu behind, not only Jingdong, Netease is struggling to catch up, there are not listed TMD (today's headlines, the United States group comments, drops), return to A shares of 360 and millet, Homes.

A Baidu side of the first financial reporter said that the widening market value gap is an objective existence, Baidu also discussed this related topic, one argument is that Baidu founder, chairman and CEO Li Yanhong that now Baidu to use the mentality of entrepreneurship to do the company.

Jingdong enter & ldquo; harvest period & rdquo;

The story of finally profit after the long time is most likely to be favored.

Once insisted on not profitable, like to make every penny out of the Amazon in the second quarter of 2015 to achieve losses and continued profit, the capital market quite buy it. Now, turn to Jingdong.

The first quarter of this year, Jingdong achieved the first profit since the listing. Its earnings show that in the first quarter of Jingdong in non-US GAAP net profit of 1.4 billion yuan, while the same period last year for a net loss of 200 million yuan.

May 8, a quarterly announcement after the two trading days, Jingdong shares rose nearly 8%, the market value of close to 54 billion US dollars, and Baidu was more than 600 billion US dollars of the market value of less than 10 billion. One and a half months later, with Jingdong market value exceeded 60 billion US dollars, and its market share gap with Baidu narrowed to 600 million US dollars.

In the second quarter of last year, Tencent's holdings, Wal-Mart's shares are to stimulate the rebound in Jingdong shares, the stock in the first quarter of this year's profitability is the main reason to boost the stock price, Rejuvenation is also beneficial to Jingdong external factors. & Rdquo;

Jingdong CEO Liu Qiang East interview in 2015 to accept the first financial interview, Jingdong Mall business has long been profitable, but now the money is still very little, but after all, one day, our mall profitability will be more and more The stronger, when the profit business more and more, loss of business less and less, profit is a natural thing. & Rdquo;

However, Jingdong now need to face the problem is in the profitability and business expansion to find a balance point. Billion foreign network founder Huang Yuan Pu told the first financial reporter, if there is no large-scale new business investment, Jingdong next profit or can be expected, "the scale continues to increase, the marginal cost is declining, with the charges in the upgrade (Jingdong) to the harvest period. & Rdquo;

At the same time, Jingdong is seeking to remove the "retail enterprise" hat, first announced Jingdong financial business will be independent, and then formally formed the Jingdong logistics sub-group, Jingdong Insurance, Jingdong Yun, Jingdong intelligent and overseas business also have Strategic layout. However, these new business has just started. Its earnings data show that fiscal year 2005 Jingdong electricity business accounted for 99.8% of revenue; the first quarter of this year, the proportion is still as high as 98.5%.

Jingdong from their own terms or an electric business company, financial and logistics have the opportunity to succeed, but it takes time. Li Chengdong that Jingdong want to maintain a state of profit is still a certain challenge, & ldquo; new business needs to invest a lot, in the short term, Jingdong will not achieve large-scale profitability. & Rdquo;

In Huang Yuanpu view, Jingdong want to go Amazon's "technology-driven" line, but the technical capacity is clearly lacking. The next three years, in addition to electricity, the Jingdong business focus is still financial and logistics.

Baidu races with time

"We are in a global era, we are in the most unpredictable industry, technological change, the ruthless flow of capital, consumers face more and more diversified choice of instability, let us this young The company dried all day, walking on thin ice. 12 years ago, Li Yanhong wrote to the staff of the internal mail, perhaps it is the portrayal of Baidu at the moment.

And the thunder of the Jingdong Jingdong, the market value of the record break through Tencent, Ali compared to the past year, Baidu experienced Baidu Post Bar, "Wei Zixi" and other storms, two vice president Wang Zhan, Li Mingyuan also have to leave, Also appeared for two consecutive quarters of net profit decline.

Baidu's first quarter revenue of 16.9 billion yuan this year, an increase of 6.8%; net profit of 1.777 billion yuan, down 10.6%.

On the one hand, the cost of content from the love of ki art increased significantly; the other hand, Baidu's continued investment in AI increased. Q1 this year, Baidu R & D costs 2.835 billion yuan, an increase of 34.9%.

The time back to 2 years ago, O2O in full swing when Baidu has rhetoric "account there are more than 500 billion in cash, take 20 billion to make glutinous rice do".

But a year later, Baidu's strategic focus has shifted to the field of artificial intelligence, burning O2O not only broke through the existing pattern, but also repeated trapped "sell" rumors.

It can be seen that Microsoft's former vice president of global operations, Lu Qi, took office in January 2017, not only to abolish the medical business and game business, and rapid integration of artificial intelligence team. Baidu AI technology platform system (AIG), opened up the Baidu artificial intelligence technology ecology, and pulled a lot of smart hardware, car manufacturers Baidu accumulated years of artificial intelligence technology to find the landing scene.

In Baidu internal, Li Yanhong evaluation Lu Qi & ldquo; work extremely fun, up and down under the reputation and rdquo ;. However, placed in front of the challenges of Lu Qi and many: First, as "airborne" executives, Lu Qi in the management of a number of Baidu how to convince the public. Second, the past year the storm constantly, and Ali, Tencent widening the market value of Baidu, how to stabilize the military to find the future. The more important question is, in the technology giants have poached the artificial intelligence talent today, including Baidu also face a certain degree of brain drain, how to establish a good innovation system, and through management and incentive mechanism to retain talents?

From BAT to AT

Just a few years time, BAT three giant's market value has long been quietly changing.

March 2011, Tencent's market value (44.6 billion US dollars) was Baidu ($ 462.04 billion) beyond, which at the time, is the first time in nearly five years, China's Internet first title first easy master.

However, with the value of WeChat is recognized, as of the end of 2012, Tencent's market capitalization of 60 billion US dollars, while Baidu is back to 35 billion US dollars or so.

By 2014, millet was valued at more than $ 40 billion. Qihoo 360 Chairman Zhou Hongyi had predicted: "two years millet market value beyond B, after the basic catch up to A hundred billion order, the most chance PK penguin, the future of the Internet pattern is no longer BAT, but ATM. & Rdquo;

In the past year, NetEase and Jingdong's market value gradually approaching, and continue to narrow the gap with Baidu.

Into 2017, Tencent and Ali's market value of record high, you catch up with me, Baidu is still wandering around $ 60 billion.

It is worth noting that Tencent first quarter earnings of 14.5 billion yuan, up 57% over the same period last year, Baidu revenue 16.9 billion yuan over the same period. This means that, according to the growth rate, Tencent single-season net profit will soon exceed Baidu's single-season revenue.

There are indications that BAT is becoming AT. Who is the most likely to be a BAT-level company?

US group commentary CEO Wang Xing that TMD have the opportunity, are not easy, will not happen in the short term. But he also bluntly said: "B and AT are not an order of magnitude. & Rdquo;

Huang Yuanpu's view is that the future of the Chinese Internet will show the two ultra-strong "rush" pattern: the AT is 500 billion US dollars of the giant, and Baidu, Jingdong, millet, drops, the US group, Netease is "strong" and " ; And "strong" ralph lauren pas cher, the players have the opportunity to appear in the second tier of the billion dollar market value of the company.

But if the Internet is entering the second half of artificial intelligence (AI), it is difficult to exclude Baidu, it seems that this pattern is becoming BATH. Which is H, that is, Huawei. In the 2016 annual report, it made it clear that the industry is entering the era of "smart" and "smart".

Baidu in the field of artificial intelligence can not be underestimated the layout. Right now, it is for their own years of artificial intelligence to find more scenes landing.

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