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Buffett clearance IBM? An IBM staff reflection: strategy leading ten years, the model behind a hundred years

via:博客园     time:2017/5/11 21:32:08     readed:1890

巴菲特为何清仓巴菲特为何清仓 IBM?一位 IBM 技术人员反思:战略领先十年,模式落后百年

No technology companies can guarantee that never make mistakes. The difference is only: some made a mistake, farewell; some made the wrong, will return to the stage after the silence.

IBM is clearly not the former, IBM, after all, has the wrong point to return to the peak of the story. But this time, IBM has been to the bottom of the U-shaped, has been five years & hellip;

What exactly is wrong?

Over the past week, "Warren" Warren & middot; Buffett has twice mentioned IBM in public. Two conversations, he as the IBM shareholders to convey the conclusions, are decisive departure.

In an interview with CNBC on May 4, Buffett said: "I am wrong, but IBM is a powerful company, but they are also facing the same strong competitors." I am now on IBM's valuation method is different from six years ago, just started to buy the stock when the company's stock and according to my re-evaluation, this stock is facing downward pressure. & Rdquo;

Buffett quotes two years ago Bill & middot; Gates's own caution, there is a word that is impressive, "IBM is getting more and more like a technology company, and this is very sad. & Rdquo;

The meaning behind the literal is far more than "rivalry in the field of cloud computing", and the prospect of Watson's profitability is not clear enough to reveal the disappointment of the bones. He admits that he is another good friend, billionaire investor Stanley & middot; Drucken Miller has also reminded him: Do not invest in IBM.

巴菲特为何清仓巴菲特为何清仓 IBM?一位 IBM 技术人员反思:战略领先十年,模式落后百年

(It is said that over the past few years, Bill Gates has warned Buffett more than once that IBM needs to be cautious)

And on May 6, Berkshire & middot; Hathaway's 52nd anniversary of the shareholder super "big party", Buffett was the audience to ask questions about IBM, he once again said "investment IBM is my wrong. "However, Buffett mentioned this time Apple, and pointed out that the sale of IBM and buy Apple's stock, because in his view:

"Apple is more like a consumer goods company, not a technology company. We can use the moat theory to analyze Apple's business model & mdash; IBM and Apple's customers are different, this is two different decision-making projects. & Rdquo;

This is the old man with nearly six years time, invested more than 13 billion US dollars (about 81 million shares), in exchange for the investment experience of technology companies. He also mentioned IBM's biggest competitor in the global cloud computing market, Amazon, and admitted that "missed Amazon's investment opportunities were very unsuccessful".

This time, Buffett directly out of the keyword "business model & rdquo ;. IBM's business model was favored by Buffett six years ago, when he visited IBM for a large number of large-scale commercial customers, from the user to understand the IBM in the field of IT "moat".

To determine the strength of IBM is difficult to shake, he began to gradually buy IBM, and the past few years is also a business model for a thorough understanding of the process. Now, to admit that "the wrong" ralph lauren pas cher, Buffett has to lighten up one-third, the next step may be clearance.

Buffett expressed this attitude behind, is the late September of Jiangsu in 2017 first quarter revenue revenue, and 20 consecutive quarters (five years) revenue decline in the transcripts.

Buffett's understanding of the IBM business model is based on the investor's point of view, six years of observation and holdings, said the words than any senior industry analysts or technical experts have to come profound.

We do not want this five or six years, IBM's technology, marketing, marketing, performance to make a macro analysis, these work naturally have a top business magazine will be summarized in a few years later. We just want to talk through an IBM employee left to talk about why IBM's business model will lead to this five consecutive years of depression, this protracted transition, what can give us what inspiration?

From the early morning,

On the idea, IBM is worthy of the great word. Remember that as early as 2008, IBM put forward the wisdom of the earth, and later gradually evolved into the wisdom of the city, this trend of grasp and the concept of the lead, so far are shocking.

A few years ago from the IBM New York State Research Institute left A Jun is a technical Daniel. In the understandable notes soft grinding foam N times, and finally chatted about that year in the United States that work experience. In fact, many of the old employees left IBM, are with a grateful mood to leave, but almost 90% of people are recognized this view, IBM in a lot of trends when the arrival of inflections are early, set.

"I am very grateful to IBM for giving me the opportunity to reach out to the world's leading technology. In the IBM New York Institute of work experience, let me personally experience the wisdom of the city strategy to promote the process of bit by bit. & Rdquo;

A Jun talked about IBM, feeling still reveal the incomparable regret. "I personally experienced, IBM to a great strategy, due to the execution and business philosophy of the mistakes, led to an early morning, caught a late set. & Rdquo;

巴菲特为何清仓巴菲特为何清仓 IBM?一位 IBM 技术人员反思:战略领先十年,模式落后百年

(In 2008, IBM put forward the wisdom of the Earth strategy)

In the view of A Jun, IBM began in 2008, "wisdom series" behind the strategy is very forward-looking, can be said that the future development of the ICT industry, made a wise prejudgment. At that time, cloud computing and large data "are still in their infancy, but IBM clearly realized that the outbreak of data, will make" analysis "become a key technology, more valuable, is the analysis of the decision.

At that time, IBM's consideration is that hardware products will be increasingly worthless, out of the low-end hardware market, the Red Sea, including the X86 server sold to Lenovo and other initiatives are to get rid of the burden, fast forward.

"IBM has been judged at the time that the future society will be a data society, the rapid accumulation of data, the whole society is the problem is how to obtain value from the massive data, then the analysis is the core. "Said A Jun.

Therefore, IBM put forward the analysis of the first "data analysis capabilities will become the wisdom of the Earth (city) the core development of key points.

This idea, at that time is absolutely ahead, it is also for the data analysis and business trends prejudge, when the international financial turmoil in 2008 caused a global economic recession, IBM put forward the wisdom of the Earth plan and development ideas, began to promote " From the customer's point of view, to solve the actual needs and value-oriented "industrial solutions, two years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, IBM's operations and performance has not been affected, and revenue steadily increased.

A Jun recalled, as the wisdom of the Earth and the wisdom of the city's core R & D department, IBM established B.A.O (business analysis and optimization) sector, began to smart city of technical level of interpretation and mining. (Including video, audio, images and text), how can the data from the data sources of the probe, sensor, astronomical meteorology, and so on, together, dig out the data from the massive, multi-dimensional data (including video, audio, images and text) , The analysis of the most valuable information, to the industry to provide management, decision-making, recommendations, pre-judgment and other operational results. & Rdquo;

So the idea of ​​leading, governments, industry customers will naturally be the banner of IBM's wisdom under the wave of desire to ah!

However, IBM has chosen a leading industry 10 years of strategic decision-making, but with a century-old traditional business model to operate: is to allow customers to accept their own advanced ideas, but to sell their own high-end machines and software (DB2) The

"Recall that year, so the new business philosophy, so that the company's numerous engineers and technical R & D staff excited, but when the commercial operation is running up, but still sell hardware and databases. The two are not matched, is bound to have no long-term vitality. "A Jun is very calm analysis.

Once, IBM wisdom of the city's classic case by the world's major media reports, cited as a classic. However, the past two years, a lot of "classic" ralph lauren pas cher, all died down, quietly, where is the problem?

Take Singapore as a case. IBM has been working with Singapore's Land Traffic Management since 2011. A team has dynamically adjusted traffic lights to avoid traffic jams by analyzing all ground traffic in Singapore's central business district. A Jun said that this project because of the high degree of information, sparse blocking effect is good, at that time has achieved great success. Later, Forbes, CNN and other media are dedicated to Singapore on the project conducted a special report.

However, after the wisdom of traffic projects in Singapore, but not like the promotion of IBM as "smooth" and "r".

The reason is that the land traffic management department if you want to continue such a wise management and operation, need to pay the first huge expenditure, the huge cost of the relevant departments discouraged. Just think, if the supplier of services and hardware and software products bundled together, and you have to face the purchase of hardware after a heavy operation and maintenance costs pressure. For any customer, is a difficult problem.

"I only need sinking pearl, but you put a lot of pebbles also put together, I want to accept all. "The result is self-evident.

In the view of A Jun, if IBM was full of cloud computing, especially the public cloud market, adhere to the cloud computing technology and cloud services model to provide users with computing power, software and business functions and not a bunch of hardware and software The bundle of today's results are completely different.

It can be said that the overweight, the result is the customer's away and the performance of the recession. At the time of IBM, if you want to promote or change the business model is a very difficult thing, it can not be one or two technical Daniel, or department director can promote things.

ABC's short board is hard to fill

巴菲特为何清仓巴菲特为何清仓 IBM?一位 IBM 技术人员反思:战略领先十年,模式落后百年

(In 2014, IBM released Watson Health, known as the transition.)

Business model driven by technology in the rapid change, but IBM is adversely affected by fighters, constantly making a big mistake.

From the bundled sales to the service provided to the customer & ldquo; rent & rdquo ;, let the blue giant think for a long time. So, IBM's patent applications, technology research and development staff, engineers, leading, did not become the turning point of the industrial transformation of the inflection point, the concept of leading competitors in the past few years to take the lead.

And around 2008 began to promote the private cloud of IBM, the same interpretation of the cloud from the early morning, the evening set the plot. And in the discovery of market trends, IBM began in the public cloud market for generous "buy buy", including June 2013 to billions of dollars to buy public cloud service provider SoftLayer, and after a few years acquisition of the database company Cloudant, Cloud services solutions provider Bluewolf, $ 1 billion acquisition of medical image data company Merge Healthcare & hellip; included recently announced the acquisition of Verizon cloud computing and hosting business generous, are make up the process.

According to understand the notes statistics, the past six years IBM conducted a total of nearly 40 pen and cloud computing-related mergers and acquisitions, is to use money to change the time, fill the cloud computing, large areas of data lack of talent and experience short board.

Today, the wisdom of the Earth and the wisdom of the city series has gradually faded out of the public eye, cloud computing, large data and artificial intelligence composed of ABC integration model (AI + BigData + Cloud), has been more and more Internet giants began to mention. IBM is now vigorously promoted, it is "cognitive business era" and the arrival of. In fact, all the players' keywords are focused on the AI.

And to provide users with artificial intelligence service capabilities, not only in the AI ​​technology leader, but also cloud and data support. This depends on the past few years, service providers in cloud computing operations services experience, and through the service industry to accumulate and master the massive data, from the clouds and data, AI is a paper talk.

At the end of April 2017, Amazon CEO Bezos in the annual "to shareholders letter" stressed: AI, especially machine learning will be the next stage of the development of the focus of Amazon. At the same time to determine this initiative will maintain the dominant position of Amazon, to maintain ahead of the situation in the competitors. At the same time, Amazon is researching "artificial intelligence as a service" and providing the basic tools of artificial intelligence to the cloud computing and developer community.

At the Cloud Next conference held on March 10, Google also announced the launch of the Machine Learning Engine (CMLE) to developers, and some AI technology has been used in Google's multiple cloud computing products, including voice, visual, Video and other seven data interfaces. And Google cloud chief scientist Li Feifei said: "One of our most important goals is to let the machine learn into a variety of physical, various industries or a variety of complex organizations, a transformation tool. & Rdquo;

These two have been invariably the AI ​​as the main selling point of cloud computing services. But whether IBM, which has lagged behind embracing large data (rather than selling machines) and embracing public clouds, can use money to buy back lost years of practical experience.

Even the star Watson, in the medical field also need to continue to learn and training, and through a lot of data and funds to help Watson to complete the learning and training process. However, how many industry users can accompany his wife to read no regrets?

The end of February this year, foreign media exposure University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center and Watson cooperation project end, from the side reflects some of the problems.

An audit from the University of Texas's administrative system showed that MD Anderson has invested more than $ 62 million since the launch of IBM Watson Medical and MD Anderson since its launch in October 2013. However, there is no formal purchase rules that have been developed. The report also explains: "The results described here should not be construed as a basis for the scientific basis or ability of its system in the current state. "There is a media evaluation, the contents of the report did not actually deny Watson's function is not, just" too much money "ralph lauren pas cher.

Look forward to the giant out of the bottom

巴菲特为何清仓巴菲特为何清仓 IBM?一位 IBM 技术人员反思:战略领先十年,模式落后百年

(IBM CEO Luo Rui Lan)

Perhaps, these years, IBM continue to buy buy will have a certain effect. At the InterConnect conference in Las Vegas on 22 March, IBM CEO Roirland announced that cloud services will account for a larger share of IBM's business (currently 17% of revenue for the cloud), and the data center will be further expanded.

She also stressed that the establishment of a new data center in China, especially in mid-March cooperation with Chinese enterprises Wanda will become a bright spot. Luo Rui Lan for IBM's cloud service is clearly high hopes, she hopes that the service capabilities for enterprise cloud business to provide strong help, and pointed out that the core of the service is Watson artificial intelligence strong cognitive ability.

But it is clear that two weeks ago (April 24) IBM held a shareholder meeting in Florida, shareholders are more concerned about the future of the company's improvement.

Back to the starting point of the article. Why in a few weeks, Buffett determined to buy one-third of the hands of IBM stock? Because these pyramids are the top people, see is a harbinger.

IBM has the technical strength, has many years of IT industry accumulation, a large number of industry customers, there are data centers around the world, there are dazzling patent applications, of course, star Watson (Waston) & hellip;

However, the understanding of the business model, the reaction to the trend of change, IBM's development in the next few years, the industry is not the most sensitive people in the sense of smell. This U-shaped bottom, whether it has come to an end, who said bad.

Not clutching a good hand, who can win the final. 90 years of the last century, known as the "biscuit salesman" CEO Gerstner, once saved a blue giant, with more than a year to lose $ 8 billion into a profit of $ 3 billion (1993 ~ 1994 ). Now, has been engaged for nearly 5 years CEO Luo Rui Lan, how long will IBM take out from the bottom?

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