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About the future of Facebook, the 31 year old Zuckerberg and the three up one's sleeve

via:博客园     time:2015/11/18 15:31:04     readed:2681

关于关于 Facebook 的未来,31 岁的扎克伯格还有三条锦囊妙计


This paper is made byMachine heartThe compiler produced, participation of members: Chen, once used, Zhao Yunfeng, Meng Ting, Zhao Saipo, wang. Tiger sniffing slightly edited, small tiger sniffing the title.

Facebook is no longer a social media, in the past three years, Facebook not only completed the IPO, but also has completed a number of the industry's acquisition initiatives, and in the field of artificial intelligence, virtual reality, a wide range of layout, all of this will allow us to see the future development of social giant Zuckerberg.

Three, Zuckerberg's 1 big bets

"Mark is in the gym" when I was at Facebook headquarters, a PR in charge told me Mark

In 2012, Zuckerberg set a personal goal.

"If we are trying to create a world class Feed (News), a world-class communications products, a world class search and advertising system, we want to create virtual reality, the development of unmanned aerial vehicles. I was unable to write each line of code, I can not write any code. "

Today's Facebook, as well as the future Facebook, has a strong, far more than a few years ago. We are very easy to forget the company listed in February 1, 2012, when the Facebook is just a website plus a App, experts on the future profitability of its ability to hold a skeptical attitude. Now

"There are 1500000000 people using social networking platform Facebook, this number is still growing; 900000000 people use WhatsApp, which is a very important part of our whole system; 400000000 people use Instagram; 700000000 people use Messenger Facebook; 700000000 people use Groups Facebook. We will continue to accumulate in this direction, more growth. "

In order to promote the sustainable development of the company's business, Zuckerberg made three big bets:

One is to develop more advanced artificial intelligence, help companies better understand the user;

Two is a virtual reality, which is the original intention of $2000000000 acquisition of VR Oculus in 2014, Zuckerberg believes that virtual reality will become the mainstream way of future interaction;

The third is to promote the Internet, including Facebook, which is not covered by nearly 4000000000 people, even through the flight in the remote mountainous areas of UAVs to achieve this goal.

In view of Facebook's good business development momentum, Zuckerberg's investment in these areas is very generous. In this paper, Zuckerberg and his executives to disclose a lot of exclusive company information.

In the Internet field, the establishment of a number of companies do not seem easy to achieve the goal of the company is not uncommon. For example, the Google Corporation in order to better invest in future technology, in August this year, Google became a subsidiary of Alphabet, and now the new Google is only responsible for the core business. Zuckerberg clearly Google Paige is not a group of people:

"Of course you can cast a wide net, and doesn't focus on a particular product, and then see what the business will succeed. But this is not in conformity with our method. We focus on a central goal, and tap the potential of a deeper level. "

Zuckerberg said, and Facebook's goal is to give the world the ability to share information, so that the world has become open and interconnected. Zuckerberg said that he is now thinking about the future of the future 1/3, these things can not fail, we must strive to make these operations to achieve the company's development goals. "

2, Zuckerberg is how to achieve these achievements?

When Facebook from an Ivy League school enterprise into Silicon Valley Venture Company, Zuckerberg not only never management companies, and not even in a company. As Facebook's board of directors will be members, Marc Andreessen, a well-informed of Zuckerberg's endless praise, "Zuckerberg learned much from the past ten years business management school. He is now one of the world's best CEO. "

Perhaps young and famous, or his appearance and simple dress, Zuckerberg and his company has long been underestimated or even bad. Facebook is unlikely to go out of the Harvard University; Facebook is unlikely to be successful in the elite group; Facebook can't beat Myspace; its business development can't support high valuations; when the mobile Internet comes, Facebook will face failure.

Zuckerberg and his team overcome the above difficulties. Today, in the world's 1500000000 users, each of the 9 people in the past month using mobile devices to access Facebook, the three quarter of fiscal year 2015 earnings report, 3/4 of the advertising revenue from the mobile terminal. The company now has four of the world's six largest social platform (the other two are Youtube and micro letter), three years ago, when Facebook announced the monthly breakthrough 1000000000 users log in, the whole world is shocked. And when last August of a Monday, 1000000000 users visited the Facebook, we think this is bound to happen.

When I asked people who are familiar with Zuckerberg, he is how to obtain these achievements, I haven't heard a lot about him coming down from heaven, and do it alone the sudden change of all the genius decision anecdotes. Instead, they praised him as a curiosity, perseverance, ability to use and allocate resources and to improve the ability of Facebook and its own. He has the ability to dismantle the grand goals into small, small targets. "Most of our talk is about the long-term plan, but we'll be back next month, and that's one of the main reasons why Facebook has made it. "Bret Taylor CTO said that during his 2009 to 2012, he served as a technical route for the delivery of services on smartphones.".

"In terms of work and hard work, Zuckerberg has always been an example to us," said Cox Chris, chief product officer, who dropped out of Standford in 2005 to join Facebook as a software engineer, "as part of the corporate culture, Zuckerberg will talk to each new employee for his guidance. All the people who work for him think he is a very special person. "

As a member of the Facebook board and Bill

When I met COO Sandberg, she told me a story about family gatherings, showing Zuckerberg's many extraordinary gifts. "Mark said," I'm going to be a cotton candy. "In a conference room with a spider painting, Sandberg said," I told my friend, "he's going to be a perfect cotton candy. Because he is the most patient of us. To do cotton sugar can not be far from the fire, but also can not be too close, but not directly on the fire roasted. To sit in front of the stove for 5 to 10 minutes can not leave. Only Mark would do it. Because he decided he would be absorbed. Mark is the most persistent person I've ever met. "

Two, so that Facebook achieved such a success of the 3 specific moments

Looking back, there are two specific moments that made Facebook so successful that they could pursue their dreams. The first one is the 2007 to 2008, the company decided to hire more people with the experience of Silicon Valley, the current leadership in most of the time to join, including Google's business planner Sandberg. Zuckerberg also from Mozilla company to dig Schroepfer Mike as the company CTO. Zuckerberg said:

"Working with someone for 5 years, 7 years, 10 years of building a wide range of trust, it is worth praise? It's just amazing. All I care about is the openness and connectivity of the global consciousness. Sandberg sincere feelings, there is the ability to connect the company, is good at active corporate atmosphere. She is far better than people think. And Schroepfer has the extraordinary patience and calm to manage long-term projects. "

Different from competitors, Zuckerberg is able to maintain a stable position in the team. This team led by the aggregation of the acquisition of Instagram and the success of the next image application.

When announced the acquisition of Instagram in April 2012, Facebook has just completed IPO less than 6 weeks, that time, the Internet is filled with Facebook how to destroy Instagram or destroy Instagram five ways of the article. Ironically, this acquisition has become a model for the acquisition of Facebook integration model. Zuckerberg let Instagram two founder Systrom Kevin and Krieger Mike continue to be responsible for the original team, and to encourage them to maintain the original team culture, and to give great support in terms of resources, including access to the Facebook recruitment system and Facebook research and development of anti zombie users, etc., so that Instagram runs faster. CEO Systrom Instagram said:

"Schrep and I am in charge of the company's operations, including team building and recruiting. Mark and I have a lot of communication at the product level. Sheryl (Sandberg) and I was the intersection of advertising system construction. Imagine, how many Silicon Valley companies are dreaming of their own board of directors to have Sheryl, Schrep, Mark such a person ah. And that's what we do. "

After being acquired by Instagram, the number of Facebook users in a blowout growth, just in October increased 3 times, reaching 100000000 users, but also in the next 13 months to double again, now the picture of social networking site has 400000000 users.


Gleit Naomi is responsible for the social networking of VP: "we can achieve the goal through data driven, product driven approach. You are very interested in some of them, because your friends are also very interested, so we are using social means to achieve. "

4, Zuckerberg a series of aggressive acquisitions

Zuckerberg learned from the acquisition of Instagram and perhaps the picture of social networking sites earning potential is very valuable. This has also become a series of aggressive acquisition of Zuckerberg, he then completed the acquisition of WhatsApp and Oculus, and will be integrated into the company's business. Zuckerberg invited former Paypal CEO Marcus David is responsible for the chat application Messenger, and decided to move it from the Facebook client to peel off, become an independent App.

"We were not at the right time for Zach," said a former Facebook employee who left the former employee, "we were not at the time of Zuckerberg, but he was well thought out, and taking into account the user's scene and the competition. After a little more than a year, the number of active users Messenger achieved more than three times the growth.

The Messenger from the Facebook client in the release of Marcus to build a set of Facebook business model, which is similar to the Chinese micro channel model. Messenger has its own app store, with different areas of cooperation partners for cooperation in various forms, such as ESPN motion GIF, or cooperate with business enterprise, to realize the order tracking and return of goods and services in messenger. Marcus said: "we are not in a rush, but we can establish a model of quality is not limited to interactive communication. "

In an office building in New York, a researcher named Fergus Rob showed me how to recognize images in a video. For many years, the computer has been very difficult to identify the elements of the video. Fergus Rob controls a remote computer, the computer on which the camera and the identification software, but the identification is not successful. Fergus is a bit shy, but the show is not to that Facebook was about to launch the application of artificial intelligence, but to show what they are trying to do.

If you feel your Facebook time online is full of countless you don't care about and don't want to see the share, you probably should have a look at the Facebook artificial intelligence applications. At this stage, the social networking site in the collection of data technology is much higher than the processing and understanding of data. Advanced artificial intelligence can help users find more relevant content, so as to enhance the user stickiness, and to give you more focused advertising push. Systrom said:

"Facebook is becoming the core of artificial intelligence research, because these results will affect the Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, as well as a wider range of social products. "

Facebook layout artificial intelligence field has been many years. For example, in 2010, they launched a face recognition feature in the album product. 2013 years later, although Zuckerberg had claimed "artificial intelligence is our age is the most difficult technical challenge", but Zack urges established a laboratory dedicated to research in this area. He invited LeCun Yann, the deep learning field, to operate the lab. Unlike typical young Facebook employees, Yann Lecun has 55, but the Paris born New York University tenured professor has long been renowned the world over, he studied computer vision, image recognition and other technical will help Facebook become smarter.

LeCun is not willing to leave the school or New York, Zuckerberg, uses a flexible approach, he let Facebook LeCun Artificial Intelligence Lab headquarters in Manhattan, New York, and promised to continue to retain professor LeCun. Finally, LeCun agreed to Zach's plan, the problem solved.

Since Zuckerberg was unable to communicate with the LeCun every day, Zuckerberg would have the lab's other artificial intelligence researchers to arrange for him to study the interaction better. LeCun recalled the scene: "when we moved into a new office building, we and Zach about 3 meters away, but he still think it's too far away, we need to be closer to him. "(this can be an important step in learning a new knowledge. In 2011, when Facebook plans to launch the Timeline feature, Zuckerberg will be the top of the company's design team at his work station, and after the acquisition of Instagram, Zach also sat in the Systrom to work for a while.

The artificial intelligence team of the 50 people also received the authorization of Zuckerberg, they can focus on a more long-term research objectives. Zuckerberg told reporters:

"One of our goals is to face the next 5 to 10 years, we can seek technical breakthroughs from the various aspects of human perception, including the vision, hearing, language and the integration of cognition, etc.. We don't pay attention to the present difficulties. "

As part of the Facebook artificial intelligence research, they want to let Facebook will be all the equipment, from the watch to the car are connected. Parikh Jay, vice president of engineering technology, said: "the next will have more and more real-time data, but our existing technology is not fully covered. Imagine, if the amount of data is now 10 times, 20 times or even 50 times, you really need to Yann and his team's research. "

But for Fergus and his team, they are still starting to solve problems from some small places, rather than directly to think about how to deal with massive amounts of data. Bordes Antoine is a Paris based artificial intelligence expert, and now he works in the lab in New York. He is now teaching computer to understand some concepts, such as "John is now in the field" and "John picked up the football", so that the computer processing is similar to "where the football? Search request. Each training model employs approximately 50 words, which are carefully chosen, and the researchers can better distinguish between machine learning and machine learning. Bordes told me: "this is not big data, this is a particularly small data. "

LeCun let this lab have a strong school atmosphere. Laboratory researchers are not limited to the development of the Facebook product line, but also according to their respective academic research direction into different groups, relying on machine learning research, and is responsible for the research results into product features. "The senior research scholar won't tell you what he's doing," says LeCun. "They'll just say they're interested. "

LeCun and his team's technology is constantly being armed to Facebook products, such as Moments, is one that can help users identify different photos of different friends, so that users can better share different photos with different friends. "Most of the researchers are concerned about how much of their research can be of practical use," said Fergus. "In the academic world, your biggest output could be the number of times you have been examined at an academic conference. "

LeCun's work has a direct impact on the underlying operating system of Facebook, such as better zombie users and spam prevention system, and more accurate and automated advertising evaluation mechanism, in the past this work has been done. Schroepfer said: "I joked that the lab team had done something in advance for the next five years. "

6, Zuckerberg's VR dream

At Facebook's headquarters on the 18th floor, luckey Palmer and I share what I saw and heard in the virtual reality world, we played ping pong together, fireworks

A few days later, when I met Zuckerberg, I also did not raise a question, Zach can not wait to share with me the table tennis in Oculus. I did experience the fun of Zach. Zuckerberg is a game, the most avid game is Civilization, this is a CEO Brendan Iribe Oculus has been involved in the game, in 1992, the game's goal is to build up a "test of the time of the Empire."


Schroepfer CTO, Mike: "I am now, one hand in the future. Sometimes our decision is not crazy, but it is very important for the sustainable development of our core business. Because only in this way can we make the investment more long-term. "

If you have seen Oculus's stunning 360

By 2013, Facebook was finally a bit of a thread, and a "shell" was launched on the Android system, which is a product of the android app and Android apps. "This is one of the things that I regret. "Zuckerberg said sadly," Facebook did not have the opportunity to shape the environment of the mobile phone operating system. "Despite the fact that it does well on smart phones, many surveys show that users are using Facebook on smart phones for longer than others.

Oculus is one of Facebook's hands on the bet: VR will be the next major computing platform, like mobile phones beyond the desktop as the phone will be replaced

Before Zuckerberg's idea can be realized, Oculus needs to launch its Rift virtual reality helmet. The acquisition of Facebook did not change the short-term goal, namely the use of Rift to attract hardcore games home. Iribe has announced that the helmet and a PC of all the cost of about $1500, which also includes a One Xbox game handle

Oculus could have become a promising Independent Company, in many achievements, it has also been a marvel to sign the legendary game programmer Carmack John (which helped create a landmark first person shooter Doom) as chief technology officer. However, like Instagram, it is indeed a lot of profit from the acquisition of Facebook. Iribe first demonstrated in June in the media conference Touch Oculus handle, I and he was in the chat, he told me: "we have changed the recruitment rules, when we only have sixty or seventy people. But now there are more than 360 people. So rapid growth is amazing. "

Oculus smart use of Zuckerberg's tendency to strategic acquisitions, we come to him, said to him, hey, here are a group of excellent computer vision scientists, if they work here, perhaps to make the next generation of products, or two generation after the product. Iribe said, since he was Oculus in July 2014, he was in the Facebook after the rapid acquisition of a number of small businesses. "Then he said," Okay, just do it. "

As with any new joint venture, Zuckerberg is not eager to get profits from Oculus, "in the long run, we need to make sure it is sustainable. He said, "but sustainability may mean that it's not a good thing to sell, and let it do business in software or other parts of the platform, and that's what we are more accustomed to doing. "

For Facebook, it's second nature to judge the potential of Oculus, "we have Oculus five years to ten years of R & D route, clearly shows that we need to solve the problem, and how we do. Schroepfer said, "we want to make better sensors, hardware and software, in order to allow people to show their skills, and give us a wonderful experience. "


Goler Lori, human resources VP: "people here want their work to be meaningful, and their contribution is meaningful, and hope to work with people who can challenge them daily. They actually said, "I don't want me to be the smartest person here.". "

But not all of them are attracted by the dream of Zuckerberg's VR. "The Wall Street journal" is one of them, it questioned the Facebook is too avant-garde. "I'm worried that people are expected to be too high. "Robert W. Baird, a senior analyst Colin Sebastian," consumers dream there is no violation, and to enter the interactive environment, to communicate with friends. But the technology is still in the embryonic form, the virtual environment is also very basic. "

In this market is also very fierce competition, SONY and HTC will launch their own VR helmet in the next year. Then Google, its Cardboard toolkit can provide experience virtual reality opportunities in the smart phone, and the cost is only $15. Cardboard thunder and Oculus and it is cheaper, be roughly the same, and now at your fingertips.

In the heart of the future of Oculus have a more ambitious plan, when talking about the company, he continued to refer to the AR and VR. The latter refers to the Reality Augmented, which can cover the virtual reality in the real world (imagine, in your home, a virtual role to appear in front of you, and interact with you). It is AR technology to support the upcoming HoloLens, as well as the secretive, shrouded in mystery Leap Magic. October, Zuckerberg and Iribe publicly announced that Oculus is studying augmented reality. If Oculus can be condensed into a pair of glasses, and allows you to see the real and virtual world at the same time, "this will be the last piece of electronic product that many people need to buy," Zuckerberg said in a deep meditation. And this time, Facebook will become the company to sell this product.

7, Facebook can do other companies can not do

"If you are an ordinary American Facebook user, you will be spending $1 a day on the data. Sandberg explained.

The success of Facebook is that it has found a way of scale.

Facebook the current user has reached 1500000000, Zuckerberg finally can implement the last sentence you said just now

Gretel said: "I am too involved. In Ebola activities, we allow users to choose their own donations, but also choose the charity they want to donate. "The fact proved that the user is very confused, the final amount of the donor does not reach the amount of Facebook hope. "Later on in Nepal, we put the user's options down to 2 from 5, and only one of the primaries. In addition, we chose some charitable organizations and gave them an average of the average. "Gretel said.

Such a tool, "perhaps only in Facebook will appear, or, only in the Facebook to run very well," Zuckerberg said he and his wife Pooley Sheila

"I think about the things we do, such as those related to organ donation. There are Check Safety in the earthquake in Nepal, so that 150000000 people to their friends to report peace. To accomplish these things, you must draw a map of the relationship between people, to know where people are in the world, you have to have a tool that people will check every day. "

He is right: Facebook can do, other companies can not do.

However, for those who can not connect to the Internet, and the number of the world out of touch, Facebook. Zuckerberg said:

"If we really want to connect everyone in the world, so that everyone can make their own voice and share what they want to do with the people around them, then you can't just build the largest Internet Service Corporation. You must also help promote the development of the Internet. "

In 2013, Facebook recruited NOKIA, Qualcomm, Samsung and other technology giants to help it set up the Internet.org, which is a new plan to help the world, to bring people to the Internet, and these people accounted for 60 of the world's population. In the short run, the project is an altruistic behavior, but in the long run, it is capital oriented. Sandberg said:

"Fundamentally speaking, the problem is a financial problem. For 90, this is a matter of money. The world bank will be the absolute poverty of the income standard set at 1.25 dollars a day. People around the world are living under the standard 1/6. If you are an ordinary American Facebook user, then you will spend $1 per day on the data. So, it is necessary to change the business model, it must be spent down. This is what we are trying to do. "

Qualcomm CTO Matt

"With the increase in the number of countries in the economy, we are not considering this, but it is not the initial goal. We have seen in the world that they will be able to better educate their children, to participate in politics and government activities, to sell their products, and to find a job when you provide them with advanced connections. "

Internet.org's first step is a App, so that people can access Facebook, news, search, job listings, and so on. The App has been launched in India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa and other 24 countries. Facebook will be deployed in the local wireless carriers and 15000000 users. However, this App has been some frustration in many ways, especially because it only provides a specific service, rather than completely free Internet

This argument has been hot in India: investors Murthy Mahesh criticized the only for poor people free to pry into the vast information of the Internet and the tip of the iceberg of policy, it is compared to the economic level of racism, in addition, some of the mainstream media before joining the program also exit.


Yael Maguire, connectivity laboratory person in charge: "what we focus on is that advanced technology of at least an order of magnitude, rather than just a trace to improve things, because these will by other companies in the industry to complete. "

8, Zuckerberg has gained the right to trust their intuition

In Facebook, the release of prototype products, accurate assessment of user feedback, and then a little need to adjust the strategy is not only reasonable, but also the company's honor, after all, the company's guiding concept is more important than the perfect is to complete. When I asked Zuckerberg about this, he said, "Internet.org has been working, and we have learned a lot from it. From the connected network community partners here, we have been listening to their feedback, and have made significant changes in this. These adjustments, including the strengthening of the security and privacy of App, and now also allows any third party developers to submit applications for integration into App services, etc..

In time, the company may be able to develop the Internet.org to a relatively certain degree of certainty. Even now, it has allies. "I firmly believe that the Internet is better than no internet. "Sri Lanka Colombo think-tank Helani Galpaya communications LIRNEasia President commented.

For those who have not yet the Internet at the moment, Facebook and Internet.org are also trying to solve. On land, "only 10 of the world's place, the telephone is the only tool that is connected to the outside world. Our laboratory focus, but also from the perspective of the company's strategic task, is to solve how to connect the last 10. "Maguire Facebook, director of the Connectivitiy Yael laboratory, explained.

By talking with Maguire, you can quickly understand why Zuckerberg is so trusting him: he's quick and accurate to say all kinds of data and the actual situation, to cool down the way that sounds almost impossible. Facebook2014, founded in March in the Connectivity lab, Maguire and his team have decided to use drones to solve this problem, although the Maguire tends to use more neutral Vocabulary: HAPI connection, namely, high altitude Internet connection platform. In the 60000 to 90000 feet of high altitude using solar energy to charge the aircraft, while avoiding the weather and the common civil aviation aircraft, the company hopes that it will be able to transmit the high speed internet connection through the ground point of demand.

At the beginning of the project, Facebook has a lot of experience in the field of electronic hardware. As early as five years ago, when executive management decision, Facebook only through construction of their data center and server to provide a stable and efficient service to the hundreds of millions of users, the company began to accumulate the experience. Connectivity lab is the task of building energy saving, easy maintenance of the server, to allow the company to install from Sweden Lulea to Oregon Prineville around the world, the data center.

Before serving in the lab, Maguire advocates of open source computing project, but also a response to the company's strategy. Facebook does not make its design patent protection, but through the non profit agreement with the industry to share free, this agreement also received support from apple, DELL, HP, Intel and Microsoft and other companies.

"When I joined, we had no mechanical engineer. "Frankovsky Frank, a member of the open computing project foundation, said he was leading the design of the hardware," we hired some of the world's best engineers, before leaving Facebook to create a storage start-up in 2014, but still missing. "

In March 2014, the company set up a new company by investing in a British start-up Ascenta, the company was founded by Cox Andrew, he had invented the military UAV to break the world record for two weeks in the air.

As in the past, Zuckerberg is the powerful means of recruitment have farsightedness. "I personally gave the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory to make a phone call," he recalls, "he said," why do you call me? I said, "because we want to connect the world, I want you to join, this is a very important thing to me, we will make great changes together. Even if it is to repeat, Zuckerberg is still very excited.

Fourteen months after the acquisition of Ascenta Facebook, released by the full size prototype ultra light carbon fiber

Although many rapid progress has been made in the Connectivity lab, there are still a lot of things to do. The company's goal is to keep the aircraft flying in the air for 3 months, although it has found out how to use laser to transmit data at a rate of 10 million per second, but as a result of the technology to refer to the Facebook data center, it is still necessary to rationalize the details of the exchange between the UAV and the ground.

But the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) provisions of each UAV must have ground control pilot, Maguire said this will limit the Aquila the economic feasibility (similar to Google and Internet hot air balloon project, the two rivals due to influence policy to joint development). What is the solution? Computer science. "We need a good machine learning algorithm and control algorithm to achieve this idea, perhaps each pilot will manage 1000 UAVs, I do not know the specific number, but it may be between 1000 to 25. Maguire said.

"No one thought it was a good business," Zuckerberg said on Facebook. "Zuckerberg himself studied and wrote the Facebook white paper on the significance of the connection. Because he holds Facebook54 stake, so he can skip the board as he seeks cooperation plan. "The legend of Mark made the decision and told the board, but the reality is that we have a detailed discussion. "

Zuckerberg recalls: "the board of directors asked:" how much do you intend to invest? How is going to make a profit? I said, "I don't have a plan yet, but I'm sure it will be good if we connect people. These people will live better, I think it will not be long before we will see the return. "

Zuckerberg has gained the right to trust his instincts. "I don't know how to develop," he told me, "in the early days of Facebook," he told me. "I just know it's worth doing. No one thought it was a good business, so no one is going to try it. Today, we all know that Facebook is not only a good business, but also a great business. Zuckerberg has adjusted his ambitions on the basis of the situation. As Andreessen said: "he was 31 years old, and 40 to 50 years of development, which will be unprecedented. "

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